Country climate targets: another missed deadline transcript
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Simon Cullen [00:05] Hello and welcome to the Make Change Happen podcast from the International Institute for Environment and Development. I'm Simon Cullen, and in this episode we're diving into a crucial aspect of global climate action: Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. These are the backbone of the Paris climate agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C. So if you think of the Paris Agreement as the destination, the Nationally Determined Contributions – or climate targets – map out the route for how we get there.
Now, countries were supposed to submit their 2035 climate targets by the 10th of February, but only 13 did. That's just under 7% of countries. So why have so few countries submitted their climate plans and where does that leave global action? To help us unpack this topic, I'm joined by two of my IIED colleagues, climate diplomacy researcher Camilla More and climate finance senior researcher Sejal Patel. Camilla and Sejal, welcome to the podcast.
Camilla More [01:07] Thanks for having us.
Sejal Patel [01:08] Thanks, Simon.
Simon Cullen [01:09] Now, I've given a super brief overview of what these nationally determined contributions are. But maybe Camilla, if I could start with you and get you to explain in a bit more detail just what they are and why they're so important.
Camilla More [01:21] Yeah, thanks Simon. So as you said, the Paris Agreement sets out the goals to limit warming to 1.5°C, to increase our abilities to adapt, and to align international finance flows with low-carbon climate-resilient development. But it's not very clear on how we get there, or it doesn't prescribe that from a top-down approach. Rather, it requires every country to submit for its own self what it plans to do, and communicate that through a plan every five years.
They should include targets for emission reductions for this period, will be for the 2035 date. But they also set out sort of how you'll contribute to the other goals of the Paris Agreement as well. And they should represent the country's highest ambition possible and reflect their fair share of the global efforts. So based on historic responsibility and based on capabilities to take climate action, how much will each country contribute to that global goal?
Simon Cullen [02:20] OK, so we're talking about 2035, as you mentioned. It's a really crucial time period, isn't it? Because of course, in the news, we keep on hearing we're breaking record after record when it comes to these global average temperatures. So fairly crucial isn't it, Sejal?
Sejal Patel [02:33] Yeah, exactly. I think the evidence is really mounting up that climate change impacts are increasing in frequency, intensity and duration across the globe. And I think there's a real opportunity here for countries to deliver strong, integrated and ambitious new climate plans this year that will support implementation up to 2035, that really helps them make important development gains, and make their economies much more resilient to climate impacts.
Simon Cullen [03:01] So why have so few countries submitted updated climate targets? I mean, to what extent should we be reading into a Trump effect here?
Camilla More [03:12] It's hard to say. There's lots of factors obviously contributing to these countries submitting plans. UNFCCC [the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] isn't famous for having its deadlines met. But obviously this deadline was agreed by the parties, so it's disappointing that so few have. I wouldn't think it's necessarily a direct result; it wouldn't be so quick to react to Trump necessarily. Although of course that will have huge impacts on the implementation of these plans.
In theory, of course, the plans are independent of one another. So it should be the most each country can do, and its fair share. It shouldn’t depend on what others are doing. We've seen a lot of the plans that are developed, particularly in developing countries, are dependent on international support. And we've seen that already be scaled back by Trump. We saw a fairly disappointing outcome at COP29 on a new climate finance goal. And I think there's already been mutterings that, sort of, this round of NDCs will reflect that – which, India made some indications towards that.
So yeah, I think there's a number of factors. Simon Steele, executive secretary of the UN Climate Convention, has said, you know, it's better that these plans are made well and robust, and a bit late is better than sort of rushing through. So they do take time to develop, so it's not really a surprise, but it's obviously not ideal.
Sejal Patel [04:36] I think another interesting thing to note on this is that the US has submitted an NDC through the outgoing Biden administration. That does send a signal: even if the current administration is now pulling out of the Paris Agreement, they’re still party to the convention.
And as we saw in the previous time there was a Trump administration in power in the US, even when they did withdraw from the Paris Agreement, something like 30 US states and a lot of US cities still committed to uphold the Paris Agreement objectives, despite this sort of withdrawal at the federal level. I think there is still sort of hope that there won't be this massive gap in financing. Countries can still plan, hoping to receive support at the international level.
Simon Cullen [05:18] Sure, and I think that's a good point. Because we did see that groundswell of public support behind climate action in the United States last time Donald Trump was in the White House. So with these NDCs themselves, I've had a look at a few of them: they look quite complex. And Camilla, you sort of referenced this here a little bit. With some of the least developed countries: do they have the capacity to pull these together? I can imagine it's a hard job. And as you mentioned as well, it's conditional on some funding commitments from some of the richer nations, isn't it?
Camilla More [05:49] Yeah, it's definitely, it’s a fairly new concept. And to have this cross-sector planning for the whole country obviously takes a lot of organisation, a lot of thinking, planning ahead to beyond current election cycles, etc. There's no prescribed way or format of developing them. That's why they're sort of encouraged to be continually updated with more information – and as you have more monitoring and reporting, for example, plans in country, you can include that in your NDC.
Simon Cullen [06:21] And that funding aspect, Sejal, you've obviously looked at climate finance quite specifically. I mean, how important is it as part of the NDCs to have the climate finance part dealt with?
Sejal Patel [06:34] Yeah, I think that’s a hugely important part of these plans, right? A lot of the developing country NDCs have this conditional element, as well as the unconditional. It's what they could do if they have this support. And for many of the developing countries, the external support being provided is massively crucial. And at the moment a lot of that is very lacking – not only in quantity, but also in the quality of how it's delivered.
Around 70% of climate finance is still delivered as loans. So that adds a huge fiscal burden to the poorer countries who have, who have massive debt issues at the moment. So I think there's a huge piece there to think about, of how financing is provided and how it can be provided to be more supportive to the NDC implementation.
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Simon Cullen [07:22] Obviously we have to deal with the reality that only 13 countries met the deadline. So we are expecting the European Union, for example, and others to submit their plans later on. They've been quite clear that they are still working on them. One of the aspects here, in terms of having this timeframe, is that it needs to be done ahead of the next COP meeting, which is happening in Brazil later this year. Why is that important? Why can't countries just wait until COP?
Sejal Patel [07:47] So I think part of it is providing signals and providing plans that other stakeholders can react to, right? So if you want the international community to mobilise and prepare for stepping up financial support, having that latest information on what countries are planning to do, what developing country needs are, is really important.
And from the developed country side, it's really important to provide those signals of how much finance is coming in order to support developing countries in making plans and taking that kind of information into account. By submitting these NDCs now, the scientists and researchers can look at what is contained across NDCs and are they on track for meeting the 1.5°C pathway – what more is needed – and really trying to highlight those gaps to try and make sure they're filled.
Camilla More [08:33] Yeah, I think that's definitely the case. And they're trying to get them in before the October, when this annual synthesis report is done looking at all the NDCs. ‘Are we on track? How are they standing up?’. So that at COP, when parties get there, when ministers are together, they can reflect on that and make any decisions necessary at that international level.
Simon Cullen [08:55] So basically it's a stocktake of where we're at that this report, in the lead up to COP, we will help provide. So if we're to look at where we're at, at the moment: obviously setting these targets is one thing, but then meeting them is another. Camilla, where are we? What would that report card at the moment say?
Camilla More [09:11] Yeah, the report card is, is we're not on track. So every five years as part of this Paris Agreement cycle, we have the ‘global stocktake’. The last was in 2023. We also have the annual NDC synthesis report. Now the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] has made pretty clear that to limit warming to 1.5°C, we need to see emission reductions of about 50% by 2030, based on 2019 levels. Compared to that, we see that existing NDCs – based on the last report – if fully implemented will see us only reduce emissions by 6% in 2030, compared to 2019. And that includes the conditional elements that require support to be implemented.
So looking at just unconditional sections, we'd see an increase of 2%. So rather than decrease by half, we're seeing emissions continue to increase year-on-year and clearly be well off track the Paris Agreement goals. So that's why this round is just so important. Because we need the next NDCs to just have much more ambitious commitments that will see emissions slash, and get us back on track to what's needed to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
Simon Cullen [10:29] Are there any particular countries or regions that either of you will be keeping your eyes on, when it comes to looking for that ambition in these climate targets, in this next round of climate targets?
Sejal Patel [10:38] I think the Least Developed Countries Group, they’re always a good place to look. They're taking a lot of leadership in setting targets and making plans for low-carbon, climate-resilient development. And these 44 countries are only around 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions. But I think they've really taken up the perspective of developing to be climate resilient, just because they are the hardest hit; they're on the frontlines of climate change. So I think it will be interesting: as in, I think they'll have very ambitious plans to watch.
Camilla More [11:11] Yeah, I think also the G20 obviously represent 80% of emissions. So whether or not global emissions will be back on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, their NDCs are obviously going to have much greater impact. So, 50% reduction by someone who's emitting 5% of emissions is going to have a greater impact than a more ambitious NDC from someone with less emissions obviously. So I think that they'll be really key to look at.
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Simon Cullen [11:33] Sejal, you mentioned earlier about signals to the market. So what role do businesses have in helping countries meet their climate targets?
Sejal Patel [11:51] Yeah, I think that the private sector is a big part of this as well. And I think that's in a few ways. I think in terms of national private sector, the NDCs provide a very strong signal, right, of what countries are looking to invest in over the next 5, 10, 15 years. And I think a big piece of that is trying to bring in the private sector in these discussions, consultations, as those plans are developed: to sort of identify areas of collaboration, to identify areas where private sector financing can be leveraged for climate action in country.
I think the NDCs also provide a really strong signal for investment of the private sector internationally. And so again, I think it's important for countries to communicate very clearly what kind of areas they want support in, and sort of have that as a branch for that private sector there – with the caveat that private sector investment is for profit. And we're seeing increasing amounts of, sort of, socially minded investment. But often that does still need to be, sort of, paired with public investment to provide funding to some of the more social components of responding.
Simon Cullen [12:58] OK. Well, finally, a question for both of you – and this is one we like to ask all our guests. So when we think about this topic, what is the one big change you'd like to see?
Sejal Patel [13:08] Well, I think I would like to see countries really stepping up and choosing to create bold and ambitious 1.5°C pathway-consistent plans. You know, I think that would be a great way to counter the current doom-and-gloom atmosphere that we have lingering at the moment in the climate space.
Simon Cullen [13:23] Camilla?
Camilla More [13:24] Yeah, I agree. I think parties taking the Paris Agreement – which they committed to – seriously, and submitting NDCs that really do reflect the highest possible ambition and their respective fair share. I think that I look forward to it.
Simon Cullen [13:37] Well, Camilla More and Sejal Patel, thanks for joining me on the Make Change Happen podcast.
Camilla More [13:42] Thanks very much for having us.
Sejal Patel [13:44] Thank you.
Simon Cullen [13:45] Well, for more information on IIED's work in this area, or to catch up on past episodes, visit our website at iied.org. And remember, you can subscribe to the Make Change Happen podcast wherever you choose to listen. Thanks for tuning in.
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