COP29 must deliver bold commitments to limit catastrophic climate impacts

As a climate negotiator from Sudan and the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group, I can see the potential of COP29 as a beacon for ratcheting up support for developing countries and increasing emissions reductions over the next decade, to usher in a safer world free of the catastrophic effects of climate change.

People in the most vulnerable countries, such as my home country Sudan, are already experiencing the adverse effects of climate change. Globally, Sudan is regarded as one of the nations worst affected by climate impacts: these have become more intense across the country, with increased precipitation, floods and droughts.

Some areas are experiencing atmospheric warming, resulting in an increase in extreme weather events. This comes at a time when the country faces a severe humanitarian and hunger crisis, caused by conflict.

In light of this, the international community must make bold, strong climate decisions at COP29 in Baku. We must see ambitious commitments from countries through their national climate plans – presented in the form of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), established under the Paris Agreement. Through their NDCs, each country outlines how it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions to contribute to the global effort needed to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C and to support climate adaptation.

Countries are due to unveil their latest round of NDCs, known as ‘NDCs 3.0,’ by February 2025. This presents a tremendous opportunity to increase climate mitigation, finance and resilience in order to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of people on the frontlines of the climate disaster. 

NDCs: bridging the Global Stocktake gap?

NDCs 3.0 will be informed by the outcome of the first Global Stocktake, which clearly aggregated collective climate action taken, identified gaps and specified the steps parties should undertake to curb temperature rise below 1.5°C. From my perspective, implementing the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake is a matter of commitment and dedication, rather than rocket science. Parties must design their next NDCs in accordance with the Global Stocktake outcomes.

Developed countries, meanwhile, should lead the way to transitioning away from fossil fuels. High emitters must intensify their plans to phase out fossil fuels in a transparent way, to prove that they are not merely selling empty promises. What’s more, all countries must swiftly scale up mitigation and expedite climate action in this critical decade, ensuring that the 1.5°C goal remains intact.

Consequently, NDCs 3.0 should contain explicit metrics and plans for transitioning away from fossil fuels, and for contributing to the global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency. Failure to do so, by only partially implementing the outcomes of the Global Stocktake, would result in severe consequences.

As these NDCs, together, determine of the extent of international climate action – establishing emissions reduction targets and other measures that countries promise to implement – it is imperative that they are strong and ambitious enough to facilitate the full outcomes of COP28, including the first GST.

Support for scaling up action on mitigation

The lack of support provided for developing countries like mine is one of the key challenges slowing down the implementation of mitigation projects. The International Energy Agency’s latest report on mitigation stated that clean energy investments must be tripled to reach US$2.7 trillion per year by the early 2030s in order to meet the Global Stocktake outcomes for clean energy development in these countries.

Providing a ‘means of implementation’ (MOI) to developing countries will be vital in delivering mitigation action at scale in this critical decade. Today, around 750 million people lack access to electricity and over two billion lack access to clean cooking, relying instead on polluting fuels to prepare meal: the majority are from LDCs and sub-Saharan African countries. 

As such, a significant acceleration in progress is required to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7, which calls for affordable, reliable and sustainable modern energy access for all by 2030.

Expediting climate action at COP29: urgent steps

The Sharm el-Sheikh Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme – set up to urgently scale up mitigation ambition and implementation this decade – must showcase actionable solutions for effective 1.5°C-aligned mitigation and clearly outline the support needed to mobilise this. 

This must link clearly to the Global Stocktake decision at COP28, offering a vehicle for implementing the mitigation section of the Global Stocktake outcomes, including through high-level political messages to guide parties on their next NDCs.

It is important that countries develop real mitigation measures rather than transferring their mitigation commitments via the carbon market mechanisms. Parties should therefore agree on developing a portfolio for deploying renewable energy resources and solar energy systems, to ensure they are not centralised and that no one is left behind during the energy transition phase.

International collaboration is needed to scale up mitigation action, especially in renewable energy systems production and critical minerals extraction and processing. These industries should not be dominated by just a few countries. 

Many LDCs are home to critical minerals: the new fuel, central to many fast-growing clean energy technologies. Supporting them to extract and process these minerals sustainably will help them to reduce their emissions and reduce the world’s reliance on fossil fuels – while also serving LDCs' local economic development and improving livelihoods in local communities.