Tanzania has just 20 years to adapt agriculture to climate change, warn economists
Economists warn that Tanzania has just 20 years to adapt its agriculture to climate change or face major impacts that cascade through the country’s entire economy.
In the first study of its kind in East Africa, published today by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), the researchers stress that time is running out for Tanzania to adapt.
The researchers predict that impacts of climate change in Tanzania's agriculture sector will reduce the nation’s total GDP by 0.6-1% by 2030.
But they warn that unless there is meaningful adaptation in the sector this could rise to 5-68% by 2085 as greater climate shifts take hold and trigger a chain of impacts that spread through the economy like falling dominoes.
"If Tanzania's farmers and farming practices do not adapt, the impacts of climate change will be extreme and they will ripple through the country's entire economy as so many other sectors are dependent on agriculture," says economist Muyeye Chambwera, who co-authored the research.
East African temperatures are expected to increase by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius by 2100. Already climatic patterns are becoming less predictable with more extreme droughts and floods.
"The next twenty years will be a period of great climatic variability but later in the century the climate could tip into a very different reality marked by severe climate change because of continued warming," adds Chambwera. "We don’t know when this tipping point will come and that makes early action to adapt to climate change all the more urgent."
The researchers say that climate change will reduce yields of maize but could favour the production of other crops such as wheat, rice and barley.
"The impacts of climate change on agriculture will hit the poorest Tanzanians first and hardest, so the sooner they can adapt the better," says co-author James MacGregor.
"Acting now will be cheaper than waiting for the future. As 2030 is the deadline for meaningful adaptation it is essential that adaptation is a central part of Tanzania’s Vision 2025 development plan."
The researchers say Tanzanian policymakers must focus immediately on helping farmers adapt to climate impacts by addressing both food production and marketing efficiencies.
"To continue its recent progress, the Tanzanian economy requires climate-proofing measures that initially help farmers to adapt and secondly help rural livelihood systems to become more resilient," says MacGregor.
The researchers suggest that adaptations could include new supply chains for agricultural inputs, new middleman relationships and improved access to credit, insurance, technology and training.
"While much of this could be delivered by the private sector, experience elsewhere shows the positive livelihood impact from an added public policy stimulus," says Chambwera. "Replicating this policy approach in other low-income countries is essential if low-carbon growth and other development priorities are to become realities."